CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75.00% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
The Australian dollar (AUD) had entered 2023 on a high note, rising to US$0.71 in January. However, it steadily declined throughout the year, ending 2023 at US$0.65. We’re almost halfway through 2024 and the situation hasn’t changed much. The AUD was trading at US$0.66 in mid-May. KPMG forecasts that the Aussie would end 2024 at $0.69 and 2025 at $0.71, on the back of projected economic growth in Australia, which is likely to accelerate from 1.4% in June 2024 to 2.3% by December 2024.
At the same time, the AUD/USD tends to witness high volatility, which creates abundant opportunities for traders to optimize their gains in the forex markets. Here’s a look at the news and market updates forex traders keep an eye out while trading the AUD/USD.
Interest rates determine the demand for a currency. High demand (amid high rates) exerts upward pressure on the currency valuation, while poor demand exerts downward pressure.
The Australian central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), usually follows the US Federal Reserve (Fed) for its monetary policies. However, an increasing contrast between the two economies may push the RBA to lower interest rates earlier than the Fed. As of May 13, 2024, the US economy is “booming,” according to Jamie Dimon, Chief Executive at JP Morgan, while Australian growth is subdued and expected to hit a low of 1.4% by June 2024. The below-trend growth and sustained decline in inflation levels may translate into earlier rate cuts by the RBA.
Sustained inflation and strong job growth in the US are constantly forcing the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. As of mid-May 2024, the Fed’s key rate stood at around 5.37%, while that of RBA was 4.35%. If the RBA pulls back on rates earlier than the Fed, the increased interest rate differential might exert downward pressure on the Aussie. According to Barrenjoey’s Chief Rate Strategist, Andrew Lilley, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy will no longer remain “an impediment” if growth decelerates.
Warren Hogan, Chief Economic Adviser at Judo Bank, the most accurate forecaster of interest rates in 2023, says that Australia raised its interest rates later and significantly less than its peers. Therefore, it will be the last to pivot interest rate policies. Additionally, if US inflation accelerates, banks may delay interest rate cuts worldwide.
Such conflicting speculations urge forex traders to monitor both banks’ interest rate policies to make informed trading decisions.
What to Watch:
International trade relations have had an impact on the Australian dollar for long, given that it is largely an export-based economy. Since Australia exports large amounts of iron ore, natural gas, and agricultural products, the country’s exports have a huge impact on the AUD. This is because when the cost of these commodities increases, more Australian dollars are needed to purchase them. Hence, the demand for the currency increases.
Enhanced commodity demand in the global markets attracts foreign investment in the country, which also helps the AUD appreciate. For instance, from the mid-2000s to the mid-2010s, the Australian resources sector expanded significantly with the help of foreign investments. Higher terms of trade and a mining boom raised the demand for workers and higher wages. This propelled the economy and the currency. Consequently, the AUD hit a record high of $1.10 in 2011.
Australian commodity earnings for 2024-2025 are forecasted to decline below $400 billion to about $348 billion due to weakened global demand and improving global supply chains. This may exert pressure on the currency.
What to Watch
Market sentiment plays a pivotal role in the forex markets. Bullish sentiment pushes currency valuations higher, while bearish sentiment weighs on it. Business leaders across Australia have higher confidence in the global (69%) and domestic (68%) economies than American business leaders or those in the UK. In fact, 54% of Australian business leaders plan to expand into new channels, while 53% are into new geographical regions, indicating a positive economic outlook.
A positive outlook for the economy draws foreign investments and drives the demand for the currency. Positive market sentiment provides tailwinds for the currency value against the US dollar. To gain access to real-time market sentiments, choose a brokerage that offers powerful tools to monitor sentiment data from social media chatter, the markets, and industrial news.
What to Watch
Australia’s consumer sentiment and business confidence remained below the long-term average in the first quarter of 2024.
While trading any forex pair requires extensive due diligence and technical analysis, choosing the right instrument is crucial for satisfying trading experiences. For instance, derivative instruments, such as contracts for difference (CFDs), are a great way to take advantage of the forex market, since they allow speculation on both rising and falling prices. CFD trading also enables traders to hedge their long positions with short ones, and vice versa. Additionally, CFDs are traded with leverage to lower the entry barrier and allow traders to amplify their market exposure. However, forex traders must employ stop loss, take profit, and other risk management techniques, necessary to mitigate the risks associated with higher market exposure.
Disclaimer
All data, information and materials are published and provided “as is” solely for informational purposes only, and is not intended nor should be considered, in any way, as investment advice, recommendations, and/or suggestions for performing any actions with financial instruments. The information and opinions presented do not consider any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs, and hence does not constitute as an advice or a recommendation with respect to any investment product. All investors should seek advice from certified financial advisors based on their unique situation before making any investment decisions in accordance to their personal risk appetite. Blackwell Global endeavours to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but make no representation as to the actuality, accuracy or completeness of the information. Information, data, and opinions may change without notice and Blackwell Global is not obliged to update on the changes. The opinions and views expressed are solely those of the authors and analysts and do not necessarily represent that of Blackwell Global or its management, shareholders, and affiliates. Any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. Past performance is not necessarily an indicative of future performance. Blackwell Global assumes no liability for any loss arising directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information here in contained. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.
